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[sea-list] Calibration & Forecasting today!

Jake McKinnon jakemck at
Sun May 6 10:49:54 PDT 2018

*Weekly Meeting - Calibration and ForecastingMath 6th (Sunday) at 4:30pm in
Old Union 122 This week at the Stanford EA meetup we'll be practicing the
skills and ways of thinking that allowed savvy amateurs to make better
forecasts on geopolitical events than expert CIA analysts.(
<> )Here are some of the
topics we'll try to cover and practice in small groups, time
permitting:Base Rates: Outside View vs. Inside ViewConfidence References:
Thinking in Credence IntervalsControlling for Scope: Consider the
probability distribution across different outcomes than posed by the
question, such as longer/shorter timeframesAnalytics: Fermizing, assessing
signal vs. noise. Controlling for biases and fallaciesComment: Making
explicit rationales to prevent hindsight bias and share informationCompare:
Explain your reasoning, benefit from viewpoint diversity, and accelerate
learningUpdate: Revise your forecast as new information comes in or you
change your view  ------------------------------Talk by Consciousness
ResearcherFormer Stanford Student Andrés Gómez Emilsson will be coming to
give a talk on his research on May 12th (next week’s email will include
more precise information).  See more information about his work at
------------------------------LessWrong Reading groupThis Thursday evening,
please fill out this google form to be added
in Stanford Effective Altruism?Want to get more involved with Stanford EA,
or just want to chat?  Drop your name & email here
to learn more about effective altruism?  Check out some of the readings,
resources, and links at
<>, or the 80,000 Hours Career Guide
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