<div dir="ltr"><b style="font-weight:normal" id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-ee777ae3-3691-8a10-f361-0fc4cf3e31e6"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(56,56,56);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:center;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(56,56,56);background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Weekly Meeting - Calibration and Forecasting</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:center;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(56,56,56);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Math 6th (Sunday) at 4:30pm in Old Union 122</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"> </p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(56,56,56);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">This week at the Stanford EA meetup we'll be practicing the skills and ways of thinking that allowed savvy amateurs to make better forecasts on geopolitical events than expert CIA analysts.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(56,56,56);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">( </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Good_Judgment_Project" style="text-decoration:none"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(17,85,204);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Good_Judgment_Project</span></a></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting" style="text-decoration:none"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(17,85,204);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting</span></a><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(56,56,56);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"> )</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(56,56,56);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><br class="gmail-kix-line-break"></span><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(56,56,56);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Here are some of the topics we'll try to cover and practice in small groups, time permitting:</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(56,56,56);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Base Rates: Outside View vs. Inside View</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(56,56,56);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Confidence References: Thinking in Credence Intervals</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(56,56,56);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Controlling for Scope: Consider the probability distribution across different outcomes than posed by the question, such as longer/shorter timeframes</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(56,56,56);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Analytics: Fermizing, assessing signal vs. noise. Controlling for biases and fallacies</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(56,56,56);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Comment: Making explicit rationales to prevent hindsight bias and share information</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(56,56,56);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Compare: Explain your reasoning, benefit from viewpoint diversity, and accelerate learning</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(56,56,56);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Update: Revise your forecast as new information comes in or you change your view</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(56,56,56);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">  </span><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(34,34,34);background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"></span></p><hr><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:center;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(34,34,34);background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Talk by Consciousness Researcher</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(34,34,34);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Former Stanford Student Andrés Gómez Emilsson will be coming to give a talk on his research on May 12th (next week’s email will include more precise information).  See more information about his work at </span><a href="https://ieet.org/index.php/IEET2/bio/emilsson" style="text-decoration:none"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(17,85,204);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">https://ieet.org/index.php/IEET2/bio/emilsson</span></a><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(34,34,34);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:center;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(34,34,34);background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"></span></p><hr><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:center;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(56,56,56);background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">LessWrong Reading group</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(56,56,56);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">This Thursday evening, </span><a href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd4F7muU0eyLJ9pfMh5aM8OKUm0jIez8qJm-d8539pg2PGBKA/viewform?usp=sf_link" style="text-decoration:none"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(17,85,204);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">please fill out this google form to be added</span></a></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(56,56,56);background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"></span></p><hr><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:center;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(56,56,56);background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Interested in Stanford Effective Altruism?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(56,56,56);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Want to get more involved with Stanford EA, or just want to chat?  </span><a href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScTzrpi_xAH54nF1jH0UN_ItpZEhnYg8PBCL2PzjZfsKRlVvQ/viewform?usp=sf_link" style="text-decoration:none"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(17,85,204);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Drop your name & email here</span></a></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:2.26286;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(56,56,56);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Want to learn more about effective altruism?  Check out some of the readings, resources, and links at</span><a href="http://effectivealtruism.org/" style="text-decoration:none"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(56,56,56);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"> </span><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(17,85,204);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">effectivealtruism.org</span></a><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(56,56,56);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">, or the </span><a href="https://80000hours.org/career-guide/" style="text-decoration:none"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(17,85,204);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">80,000 Hours Career Guide</span></a></p><br></b><br></div>